Do Texas Democrats Have a Chance in 2022? Do the Cowboys?
Texas is a red state. I know I've caught some flak for saying that in the past. I went on a local Facebook talk show once and said Texas has historically been a red state. I didn't properly explain myself. The conversation was about recent political trends, and if I would have had the time to prepare a script, I probably would have said that going back four decades, with a few exceptions, Texas has gone red (it was a live, unscripted show, and I apologize for not making myself clear).
That being cleared up, Texas is a red state. For better or for worse, Texas has voted for the Republican candidate for president every time since 1980, and with the exception of Mark White and Ann Richards, Texas has had a Republican governor since Reagan was elected president.
Greg Abbott has been Governor ever since Rick Perry had a stranglehold on the big chair in the capitol building in Austin. Perry took over after George W. Bush was elected President of the United States by way of Austin.
However, the Trump presidency certainly shook things up. While Trump won Texas both times he ran for president, his tenure in the Oval Office definitely put some cracks in Texas' big red wall.
El Paso native Robert O'Rourke represented Texas' 16th Congressional District in the US House of Representatives for three terms before challenging Republican Ted Cruz for a seat in the US Senate. Although he would eventually lose the election, he certainly came closer than most Democrats usually do.
O'Rourke then rode that wave of progressive momentum into a short lived presidential bid. Now, it appears he is trying to take advantage of the current political climate to try and wrest the governorship away from the Republicans.
O'Rourke recently held a rally in Houston where he discussed the Texas legislature's controversial Senate Bill 7, a proposal which would make voting a more challenging endeavor across the state.
Texas Democrats see SB7 as the Republicans trying to make it more difficult for cerrain groups of people to cast their vote. Those certain groups of people usually vote for Democrats. The senate bill is similar to legislation proposed in other Republican-controlled states across the country. This sudden desire to revamp the election process comes amidst the heated debate and unsubstantiated and unproven claims by the Republicans of massive country-wide fraud during the 2020 presidential election.
The Democrats have dubbed the claims "The Big Lie." This is yet another huge wedge issue that is widening the gap in the nation's political landscape.
Strangely enough, the Republicans claim election fraud was only widespread in those states where President Biden won.
However, the election fraud debacle and the subsequent proposed election law changes aren't the only strike against the Republicans. The infamous "heartbeat bill" Governor Abbott signed into law provoked ire among the pro-choice community. His stance on immigration and the recent announcement about building a Texas border wall has Democrats up in arms as well.
The question begs to be asked: Is Texas poised for another coming of the "blue wave?" The Democrats haven't had this good a chance of taking the governor's mansion back since the days when the Dallas Cowboys were winning Super Bowls and Ann Richards was in office.
And if so, who among the Texas Democrats would make a good governor?
Some pundits have said O'Rourke's rally on Sunday was a prelude to announcing his run for the governorship. The biggest "plus" he has on his side is the exposure he gained in his race against Ted Cruz, but did his presidential ambition blind him from reaching for a more attainable goal like governor rather than shooting the moon hoping for a scrappy insurgency towards the presidential nomination? In other words, is a three term Congressman experienced enough and popular enough to be elected governor?
Will the Hispanic vote unite behind "Beto" and put him over the top in the primary and in the general election? There sure were plenty of Beto lawn signs and bumper stickers in the Rio Grande Valley, but will that support help blue bleed beyond the electoral maps of the past?
Or will a Hispanic candidate emerge as the favorite? Other political watchdogs have speculated another presidential hopeful may throw his hat in the ring. Julián Castro, Barack Obama's Secretary of Housing and Urban Development and former mayor of San Antonio could emerge as a favorite of Texas Democrats.
Another Castro who might enter the fray is US Representative Joaquin Castro. That Hispanic vote could be critical to securing the nomination.
Has enough time passed to forget about Wendy Davis' failed campaign in 2014? Another group of political analysts predict Davis may be poised for a comeback. If she decides to run, hopefully the Republican-turned-Democrat learned from the mistakes she made and one can hope she hires a different team of political advisers; a team that doesn't advocate a similar negative ad campaign should she win the Democratic nomination. People love the loser turned underdog to winner story in sports — can the same be true for politics?
Harris County Judge Lina Hidalgo is young and seen as a possible candidate, although she told Inside Texas Politics she wasn't interested in running for governor a couple of months ago. That said, the allure, appeal, and possibility of becoming the Governor of the Great State of Texas has been known to change people's minds.
I haven't heard her name thrown around, and I haven't heard what she's been doing or what she's been considering since her defeat to John Cornyn in the last US Senate race, but I think decorated Air Force veteran MJ Hegar would be an interesting choice for governor. She ran a passionate campaign against Cornyn, maybe she can do the same again.
Of course, all this is speculation. We will see what develops as we get closer to primary season. We don't even know if Abbott will be on the ballot in November, as several other Republicans have expressed interest in running against the incumbent in the primary.
And yet, I haven't mentioned anything about the wild card — Hollywood actor and Austinite Matthew McConaughey has expressed interest in politics and perhaps running for governor. California has seen actors elected governor in the past. Will Texas follow suit?
If anything, it will be interesting to see if the Democrats can successfully challenge and defeat the Republicans come November. Will turnout be as big as it was in 2020? Will the Democrats rise up and finally make Texas blue again?
And if they do, maybe, just maybe that will be the good luck charm the Cowboys need to make it back to the Super Bowl.
A dejected Cowboys fan can dream.
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