The Beacon's Races to Watch: Going Through the Democratic Primary Ballot
By Diego Garcia III | Editor of The Brownsville Beacon
The early voting numbers are in. Keeping in mind the numbers are unofficial until canvassed, over the eleven-day early voting period, a total of 18,942 votes were cast in the Democratic primary. Over 6,000 votes were cast at the Brownsville Public Library.
With fewer candidates running opposed, the Republican primary numbers totaled 4,339, with over 1000 votes being cast at the Brownsville Public Library.
Tuesday is the big day. We take a look at some of the more interesting races and offer our predictions as to who may, or may not, be moving on to the general election in November.
President
God only knows who will emerge victorious in the Democratic Presidential Primary. If the early results hold true, it is quite possible Bernie Sanders will continue his wave of success, however Sanders doesn't play as well in the South as he does in the Northeast. Several people I have spoken to mention they were considering throwing their support behind Mike Bloomberg. Will the radical socialist take Texas, or will more moderate candidates gain favor in the Lone Star State? We'll find out.
U.S. Representative, District 34
We here at the Beacon don't see either of Filemon Vela's opponents giving him a serious challenge. With name recognition, and his well-known anti-Trump stance cemented, Vela may even avoid a runoff election and win his spot in November outright.
State Senator, District 27
This will be an interesting race to follow. Will the incumbent further cement his legacy as South Texas political royalty by dispatching Ruben Cortez and Sara Stapleton Barrera with ease, or has the electorate grown tired of nearly three decades of Lucio rule? Willl Lucio's chumminess with the Republicans and charter schools be his undoing? Will the teacher's unions' endorsement of someone who didn't even graduate from high school be enough to put him over the top against a state senator who usually runs unopposed and someone who graduated from law school? Or will Stapleton Barrera's scrappy insurgency, grassroots movement, and support from women give her the edge and upset Lucio? In any case, we see this race going into a runoff. This is our upset alert, we think Lucio will face off against Stapleton Barrera in a runoff with Cortez being left out in the cold.
State Representative, District 37
We predict Alex Dominguez will comfortably retain his seat in the Texas House of Representatives. Despite Amber Medina being endorsed by the local teacher's union, we think Dominguez has done plenty in his short time in Austin to keep him in his seat.
State Representative, District 38
We predict the incumbent will also retain his seat in this race. Although Eddie Lucio III will not easily cruise to a victory over his opponent, Erin Gamez, we do believe he will emerge victorious.
District Judge, 138th Judicial District
Another race that will probably end in a runoff, three lawyers are vying for Arturo Nelson's seat. Gabby Garcia will probably end up in a runoff with Myles Garza.
District Judge, 404th Judicial District
This race has gotten ugly, with a lot of mudslinging and fighting. Louis Sorola and Ricardo Adobatti have been lobbing grenades at one another since the beginning of their campaigns. The race has been portrayed as a battle between a man of the people and a member of the Rancho Viejo/St. Joe elite. When the dust settles, we wonder if enough damage has been done to Adobatti's public image to give the victory to Sorola.
Cameron County, District Clerk
Will Laura Perez-Reyes be able to ride the support that elected her to the local school board, or will Diego Alonzo Hernandez be able to win? We are not big fans of betting here at the Beacon, but we think Laura Perez-Reyes will probably be the next District Clerk.
Cameron County Commissioner, Precinct 1
This race boils down to whether or not voters are pro-LNG or anti-LNG. That seems to be the biggest issue in the Precinct 1 race. Donald Clupper is counting on the support from the anti-LNG camp to help him unseat incumbent Sofia Benavides. Clupper is rough around the edges, and not the easiest person to get to listen to you since he almost always has, or tries, to get command of the conversation, but there might just be enough people worried about the negative environmental impact the LNG companies will have on Brownsville, Port Isabel, and the Island. The only question is, are there enough of those voters to offset Benavides and her support in Brownsville proper?
Cameron County Sheriff
Will incumbent Omar Lucio be able to avoid a runoff election and face John Chambers in the general election? We think so. Michael Galvan might have support in San Benito, and there is no doubt he has plenty of law enforcement experience, but Lucio is wildly popular, despite recent issues and controversy his jail division has been under. Eric Garza's lack of experience will keep him from being a serious contender for the county's top cop spot. Lucio's positive qualities and experience significantly outweigh any shortcomings he may have.
Will we be correct in our prognostications, or will our political analysis be turned on its head like the analysis of the 2016 presidential election?
I guess we'll find out Tuesday evening.
The early voting numbers are in. Keeping in mind the numbers are unofficial until canvassed, over the eleven-day early voting period, a total of 18,942 votes were cast in the Democratic primary. Over 6,000 votes were cast at the Brownsville Public Library.
With fewer candidates running opposed, the Republican primary numbers totaled 4,339, with over 1000 votes being cast at the Brownsville Public Library.
Tuesday is the big day. We take a look at some of the more interesting races and offer our predictions as to who may, or may not, be moving on to the general election in November.
President
God only knows who will emerge victorious in the Democratic Presidential Primary. If the early results hold true, it is quite possible Bernie Sanders will continue his wave of success, however Sanders doesn't play as well in the South as he does in the Northeast. Several people I have spoken to mention they were considering throwing their support behind Mike Bloomberg. Will the radical socialist take Texas, or will more moderate candidates gain favor in the Lone Star State? We'll find out.
U.S. Representative, District 34
We here at the Beacon don't see either of Filemon Vela's opponents giving him a serious challenge. With name recognition, and his well-known anti-Trump stance cemented, Vela may even avoid a runoff election and win his spot in November outright.
State Senator, District 27
This will be an interesting race to follow. Will the incumbent further cement his legacy as South Texas political royalty by dispatching Ruben Cortez and Sara Stapleton Barrera with ease, or has the electorate grown tired of nearly three decades of Lucio rule? Willl Lucio's chumminess with the Republicans and charter schools be his undoing? Will the teacher's unions' endorsement of someone who didn't even graduate from high school be enough to put him over the top against a state senator who usually runs unopposed and someone who graduated from law school? Or will Stapleton Barrera's scrappy insurgency, grassroots movement, and support from women give her the edge and upset Lucio? In any case, we see this race going into a runoff. This is our upset alert, we think Lucio will face off against Stapleton Barrera in a runoff with Cortez being left out in the cold.
State Representative, District 37
We predict Alex Dominguez will comfortably retain his seat in the Texas House of Representatives. Despite Amber Medina being endorsed by the local teacher's union, we think Dominguez has done plenty in his short time in Austin to keep him in his seat.
State Representative, District 38
We predict the incumbent will also retain his seat in this race. Although Eddie Lucio III will not easily cruise to a victory over his opponent, Erin Gamez, we do believe he will emerge victorious.
District Judge, 138th Judicial District
Another race that will probably end in a runoff, three lawyers are vying for Arturo Nelson's seat. Gabby Garcia will probably end up in a runoff with Myles Garza.
District Judge, 404th Judicial District
This race has gotten ugly, with a lot of mudslinging and fighting. Louis Sorola and Ricardo Adobatti have been lobbing grenades at one another since the beginning of their campaigns. The race has been portrayed as a battle between a man of the people and a member of the Rancho Viejo/St. Joe elite. When the dust settles, we wonder if enough damage has been done to Adobatti's public image to give the victory to Sorola.
Cameron County, District Clerk
Will Laura Perez-Reyes be able to ride the support that elected her to the local school board, or will Diego Alonzo Hernandez be able to win? We are not big fans of betting here at the Beacon, but we think Laura Perez-Reyes will probably be the next District Clerk.
Cameron County Commissioner, Precinct 1
This race boils down to whether or not voters are pro-LNG or anti-LNG. That seems to be the biggest issue in the Precinct 1 race. Donald Clupper is counting on the support from the anti-LNG camp to help him unseat incumbent Sofia Benavides. Clupper is rough around the edges, and not the easiest person to get to listen to you since he almost always has, or tries, to get command of the conversation, but there might just be enough people worried about the negative environmental impact the LNG companies will have on Brownsville, Port Isabel, and the Island. The only question is, are there enough of those voters to offset Benavides and her support in Brownsville proper?
Cameron County Sheriff
Will incumbent Omar Lucio be able to avoid a runoff election and face John Chambers in the general election? We think so. Michael Galvan might have support in San Benito, and there is no doubt he has plenty of law enforcement experience, but Lucio is wildly popular, despite recent issues and controversy his jail division has been under. Eric Garza's lack of experience will keep him from being a serious contender for the county's top cop spot. Lucio's positive qualities and experience significantly outweigh any shortcomings he may have.
Will we be correct in our prognostications, or will our political analysis be turned on its head like the analysis of the 2016 presidential election?
I guess we'll find out Tuesday evening.
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